Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial di Bawah Ketidakpastian Radikal dalam Ekonomi: Kerangka Integratif pada Konteks Indonesia

Abstract

This article develops an integrative conceptual framework for managerial decision-making under risk, ambiguity, and radical uncertainty in emerging economies, with Indonesia as an illustrative context. Using a qualitative literature review and thematic synthesis, the article connects Knightian uncertainty, expected utility theory, bounded rationality, prospect theory, enterprise risk management, and dynamic capabilities. The review shows that normative models remain useful when probabilities and outcomes can be estimated, but they become insufficient when organizations face institutional volatility, political transitions, technological disruption, and multi-stakeholder legitimacy pressures. The article argues that decision quality in such settings depends on five mutually reinforcing capabilities: uncertainty diagnosis, behavioral debiasing, risk culture, strategic reconfiguration, and ethical governance. Contemporary Indonesian examples from the Free Nutritious Meals program, national electricity-transition planning, nickel downstreaming, banking-rate transparency, and GoTo’s profitability turnaround illustrate how strategic choices increasingly combine analytical modelling with adaptive governance and public legitimacy. The article’s main contribution is a layered framework explaining when managers should rely on calculative tools, when they should prioritize scenario thinking and organizational learning, and why ethical considerations must be treated as a core component of risk governance rather than as an external afterthought.